STRONG SOLAR FLARE: The magnetic field of sunspot AR1719 erupted on April 11th at 0716 UT, producing an M6-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the explosion's extreme ultraviolet flash:
Coronagraph images from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory show a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) emerging from the blast site: movie. The expanding cloud will probably deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field late on April 12th or more likely April 13th. Stay tuned for updates about this significant explosion.
WATCH: M6.5 Solar Flare - Sunspot 1719 (4/11/2013).
WATCH: M6.5 Solar Flare - SDO/AIA Multiple Wavelengths (4/11/2013).
WATCH: Earth Directed Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) - Lasco C3 (4/11/2013).
A moderately strong solar flare was observed around Sunspot 1719 at 07:16 UTC. A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was generated and looks to be directed mostly to the east. There is however an Earth directed component that could deliver at least a glancing blow or more to our geomagnetic field within 48 hours. Energetic Proton Levels streaming past Earth are on the rise following the flare event.
A minor R1 Level Radiation Storm is currently in progress. A couple more solar flares of the smaller variety were observed following the initial M6.5 event. A minor flare measuring C4.2 was detected around 1721 in the southeast quadrant at 10:13 UTC. Departed Sunspot 1713 off the west limb produced a flare measuring C6.2 at 10:46 UTC.
WATCH: Powerful M6.5 Solar Flare - April 11, 2013.
SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2013 Apr 11 0658 UTC
Maximum Time: 2013 Apr 11 0702 UTC
End Time: 2013 Apr 11 0718 UTC
Duration: 20 minutes
Peak Flux: 470 sfu
ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 Apr 11 0702 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1370 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.
ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 Apr 11 0702 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.
CME Update: A bright Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is visible within the new Lasco imagery. It appears in this image that a bulk of the plasma is directed towards the east, however although hard to see in the image below, there is an earthward component that should impact Earth.
Proton Levels: Energetic Proton levels streaming past Earth are now on the rise following the solar flare from earlier. A minor radiation storm is currently in progress.
ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2013 Apr 11 1055 UTC
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.
SUNSPOTS: Sunspots AR1718 and AR1719 pose a threat for M-class solar flares.
Credit: SDO/HMI
CORONAL HOLES: There are no large coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
Credit: SDO/AIA.
SOURCES: SPACE WEATHER SOLAR HAM.
UPDATE: NASA - SOLAR FLARE, 2013'S MOST POWERFUL SO FAR, SPARKS RADIO BLACKOUT.The most powerful solar flare of the year erupted from the sun today (April 11) sparking a temporary radio blackout on Earth, NASA officials say. The solar flare occurred at 3:16 a.m. EDT (0716 GMT) and registered as a M6.5-class sun storm, a relatively mid-level flare on the scale of solar tempests. It coincided with an eruption of super-hot solar plasma known as a coronal mass ejection. "This is the strongest flare seen so far in 2013," NASA spokeswoman Karen Fox explained in a statement. "Increased numbers of flares are quite common at the moment, since the sun's normal 11-year cycle is ramping up toward solar maximum, which is expected in late 2013." NASA's sun-watching Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded a stunning video of the strongest solar flare of 2013, showing it extreme detail. The spacecraft is one of several space-based observatories keeping track of the sun's solar weather events.
NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured this image of a powerful M6.5 class flare, the strongest of 2013 at the time, at 3:16 EDT on April 11, 2013. This image shows a combination of light in wavelengths of 131 and 171 Angstroms.
NASA officials dubbed today's solar flare as a "spring fling" for the sun, which has been relatively calm as it heads into its peak activity period. Today's M-class solar flare was about 10 times weaker than X-class flares, which are the strongest flares the sun can unleash. M-class solar flares are the weakest solar events that can still trigger space weather effects near Earth, such as communications interruptions or spectacular northern lights displays. The solar flare triggered a short-lived radio communications blackout on Earth that registered as an R2 event (on a scale of R1 to R5), according to space weather scales maintained NOAA, Fox added. When aimed directly at Earth, major solar flares and coronal mass ejections can pose a threat to astronauts and satellites in orbit. They can interfere with GPS navigation and communications satellite signals in space, as well as impair power systems infrastructure on Earth. Fox said NASA officials are tracking the coronal mass ejection to see if it poses any space weather concerns for Earth. Meanwhile, the Solar Dynamics Observatory and other space observatories will continue to monitor the sun's activity. "Humans have tracked this solar cycle continuously since it was discovered, and it is normal for there to be many flares a day during the sun's peak activity," Fox explained. - HUFFINGTON POST.
UPDATE: NOAA - GEOMAGNETIC STORM CATEGORY G2 PREDICTED.The following constitutes the latest information from NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center:
Space Weather Message Code: WATA30
Serial Number: 102
Issue Time: 2013 Apr 11 1403 UTC
WATCH: GEOMAGNETIC STORM CATEGORY G2 PREDICTED
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Apr 11: None (Below G1) Apr 12: None (Below G1) Apr 13: G2 (Moderate)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2013
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at 11/0716Z from Region 1719 (N10W00). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr, 14 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 507 km/s at 11/1243Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 11/0712Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 11/0916Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 114 pfu at 11/1645Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 11/1400Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 385 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (12 Apr), quiet to major storm levels on day two (13 Apr) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (14
Apr). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (12 Apr), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (13 Apr) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (14 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 12 Apr-14 April
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 99/30/10
PCAF red
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Apr 137
Predicted 12 Apr-14 Apr 138/135/130
90 Day Mean 11 Apr 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr 006/005-018/026-028/045
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/30
Minor Storm 01/35/45
Major-severe storm 01/10/15
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 15/20/25
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